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There is no shortage of solar panels in the world. There is a shortage of solar panels you can legally, financially, and practically buy in the United States. In twelve months: India went from covering half of U.S. solar imports to facing new border duties. U.S.-made prices jumped 61 percent. Inventory fell to 42 percent of last year. Cambodia now faces penalties of up to 3,404 percent.That didn't happen slowly. It happened all at once.
The Index Reading: 83 — Up 5 Points From Q4 2025
Inventory is rebuilding. Demand is returning. But pricing is no longer driven by supply and demand alone — tariff compliance, origin certification, and ITC eligibility have become the dominant price signals in the U.S. market.
The Q1 2026 A1 Solar Index is a proprietary composite indicator built on three dimensions of market health: price stability (40%), inventory levels (30%), and demand change (30%) — all sourced from real buyer transactions across A1 SolarStore, not surveys or forecasts. Here is what the data shows.
Every Affordable Import Route Is Closed — and Nothing Has Filled the Gap
Chinese panels carry trade penalties now exceeding 200% of the product's value — making them commercially unviable for U.S. buyers. So the market moved to Southeast Asia.
AD Rate
penalty for selling below fair market value
That didn't last either. In mid-2025, import duties on Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia made that route just as unworkable:
CVD Rate
penalty for government-subsidized exports
The market then pivoted to India, Indonesia, and Laos — which together covered more than half of all U.S. solar imports in the first half of 2025. New duties are already being collected at the border; final rates are expected by late 2026.
Each detour bought time. None of them held.
The consequence shows up in one number: U.S.-made panels jumped 61% in price in a single quarter — not because they got better, but because buyers are competing for a supply that doesn't exist in large enough quantities.
Sergey FedorovCo-founder & CTOWe've watched every low-cost import route close, one by one — China, then Southeast Asia, now India. Each time, the assumption was that the next origin would hold. None of them did. What the Q1 data makes clear is that buyers can no longer plan around finding a compliant, affordable alternative. That option is gone. The market has to work with what domestic supply can actually deliver.
Inventory Doubled — But the Market Is Still Rebuilding From a Historic Low
Available inventory grew 101% quarter-over-quarter — the first increase after three straight quarters of decline. On the surface, that's an encouraging sign.
The recovery is real — but so is the distance still to travel.
But doubling from a historic low isn't the same as recovering. Q1 2026 inventory sits at roughly 42% of where it stood a year ago. The shelves are being restocked — but they were nearly empty to begin with.
Two things drove the collapse. First, trade restrictions shut off the main import channels throughout 2025. Second, a federal tax credit for residential solar installations expired on December 31 — which pulled a wave of buyers to rush their purchases before the deadline, draining whatever inventory remained.
Buyers Are Stepping Up to Higher Wattage — Including Formats That Didn't Exist Here a Year Ago
The 400–449W range remains the market's workhorse. But the real story is what's happening above it.
- 450–499W posted the biggest demand jump we've recorded in a single quarter. Buyers are getting comfortable with larger formats, and the economics are starting to make sense.
- 600W+ modules appeared for the first time — across three size ranges simultaneously. Volumes are small, but this isn't noise: it's a segment of commercial buyers actively testing formats that simply weren't on the table a year ago.
Polysilicon, Silver, Aluminum: Every Input Cost Is Pointing the Wrong Way
Every solar panel is built from the same core materials. Heading into peak installation season, all three are more expensive than they were a year ago.
Panel prices are more likely to go up than down before summer ends.
- Silver hit a record high in January and hasn't found lasting relief. A persistent global supply shortage means manufacturers of high-efficiency panels are under real cost pressure — and passing it on.
- Aluminum climbed 20% from October to March. U.S. buyers pay even more once American import tariffs are added on top.
- Polysilicon looks cheap — but the price everyone talks about is the one in China. Most U.S. buyers can't access it due to federal trade restrictions. What they actually pay is more than twice that number.
Prices Are Higher — and Buyers Are Still Paying Above List
Listing prices rose modestly in Q1 — but the bigger shift is who holds the leverage. Buyers paid above the asking price for the second quarter in a row. After years of negotiating discounts, the dynamic has flipped: buyers are now competing for inventory, not haggling over it. The preference for panels that meet compliance requirements — which took hold during the tariff cycle — isn't fading.
Six of eight active U.S. regions saw buyers pay above their local asking price, in some markets by a wide margin. Only New England and Pacific buyers managed to close below list.
Alexey KruglovA1 SolarStore CEOTwo years ago, buyers called us to negotiate price. Now they call to confirm availability — and in most markets, they're paying above asking to secure it. The conversation has changed completely. For Q2, the right question isn't 'how much?' It's 'can I get enough?'
Every data point in Q1 points in the same direction: the market has less supply than it looks like, less time than most buyers assume, and higher costs ahead regardless of what happens with trade policy. Import routes are gone. Inventory is recovering, but from a floor — not a baseline. Raw material costs are rising into the season when demand is highest. And in most U.S. regions, the window to negotiate on price has already closed.
What that means practically: buyers who are still waiting for conditions to improve before locking in procurement are likely waiting for something that isn't coming in Q2. The smarter move is knowing exactly where supply is available, which specs are actually in stock, and which brands are reliably fulfilling orders — rather than assuming the market will loosen up. The Q1 data suggests it won't.
Download the Full Q1 2026 A1 Solar Index Report
Pricing trends across 87 brands, regional supply-demand gaps, cell technology breakdowns, state incentive programs, and the full methodology behind the Index score — everything in one report, built on real transaction data.
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Alina has always been drawn to the intersection of technology and everyday life. Joining A1 SolarStore as a contributing writer, she brings fresh curiosity and a researcher's eye to the topics of clean energy and sustainability.
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