Among American households, only about 5% have solar systems installed. Many others hesitate, delay and wait for a better thing. Does it make sense? Will solar panels get cheaper or more efficient? We’ve asked solar experts about whether you should wait to go solar.
The discussions about whether you should go solar now or wait are well and alive on solar forums, Reddit, Quora and other social media. The arguments for waiting center around two main points:
Solar panels may get even cheaper. Since 2010, the cost of solar energy has dropped by 80-90%. A home solar system could cost anywhere from $30,000 to $50,000 in 2010. Nowadays, a residential PV system comes at $10,000-$15,000 in the US. When homeowners look at the price dynamics, it’s only natural for them to ask “Maybe it is going to get even better?” Solar panels may become more efficient. The efficiency is about how well a panel converts sunlight to electricity and how much power you get from a unit of area. Modern monocrystalline PV modules reach over 23% efficiency. Silicon cells inside them surpass 25% efficiency. There is a lot of talk about perovskite solar cells which reach a 30% conversion rate. Perovskite solar panels aren’t available commercially yet but when they are, they will allow to produce 20-25% more energy from the same space than silicon PV modules. Maybe it is worth it for homeowners to wait for perovskite solar panels?
We’ve asked a few experts from the industry what they think about the right time to go solar. Let’s look at what they had to say.
One of the main arguments against waiting to go solar is active policies and programs. Americans, in particular, enjoy a nice set of incentives that make going solar easier and more profitable. They won’t stay in effect forever though.
As the modules and systems get cheaper, subsidies get scaled back. So it doesn't really prove all that much better to wait. My advice: if you have the capacity and the desire to go for solar then do it.
While the number of Americans who have installed solar is relatively low, they profit from local programs. Most importantly, they get to secure good terms for their net metering programs. The terms won’t stay as good in the future: we have seen California starting to switch from net metering to net billing which has doubled the payback time of a solar system from 5 years to 10.
It is a good idea to invest in solar for your home as quickly as possible. There are two main reasons: 1) the Investment Tax Credit makes investing in solar profitable pretty much everywhere. It is a substantial incentive and if it is removed in the future, it will take many years for the other cost declines to make up for it. 2) You are more likely to get grandfathered into current rate structures and compensations from your local utility.
What about solar panel efficiency? Would it make sense to wait a bit for the next big jump in numbers? Some experts believe that we can’t expect much more from current solar cell technology. Big tech advances on the other hand will take some time for the industry to adjust itself to them.
As far as I know, we're reaching the physical limits of the efficiency of a standard silicon cell. There are not expected to be big steps in the power capacity of panels. The next step for industry would be to switch to perovskite solar cells. This technology is still really in the development phase and quite far from commercialization. In particular, people talk about tandem perovskite solar cells which are perovskite cells paired with silicon cells. Basically, you have two different cell technologies bound together. It will take time to make everything work from the point of view of electronics as well.
What about the prices? Perhaps, the future drop in prices will justify waiting a bit more? Again, the experts do not see a reason to wait.
If you look at the price level now, especially in Europe — it's so low. As a consumer, I would benefit from the prices that are here today.
Some point out that while panels get cheaper, the wider adoption of PV technologies might decrease the return that having solar brings you. In that sense, the earlier you decide to go solar, the more money a system makes you over the years.
Yes, solar panels will continue to drop in cost. However, there is a non-zero chance those costs may go up substantially if, for example, a trade war starts with China, which manufactures the vast majority of the world's solar panels.
I recommend people think of solar as an investment - if you can make a guaranteed return on your investment now with solar that is better than what you are getting at say your bank - you should do it now. Through most of the US, you will earn a higher ROI on solar than the stock market - and remember your investment in solar is tax-free because it is electric savings, whereas most other investments you pay taxes on.
What there might be worth waiting for is for solar batteries to get cheaper. The price for lithium-ion storage capacity has dropped by about 90% from $700 per kilowatt-hour in 2014 to about $130 per kilowatt-hour in 2024. A battery bank for home backup becomes a more and more feasible option for an average homeowner.
The cost of solar panels is so low now that how much lower can it really go before it becomes difficult to keep the industry running? The ball is in the court of storage in that sense. And I think the biggest, steepest cost reduction curve that we are waiting for is in batteries. It seems to go in waves: you get the onslaught of cost reductions with technology improvements like Tesla has demonstrated.
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Andrey had been a news editor and freelance writer for a number of medias before joining A1SolarStore team. Climate change and its impact on people's lives has always been among his interests and it partially explains his degree in Philosophy and Ethics.
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